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Bitcoin heading towards $60,000? Analysis as of June 18, 2024
After failing to reach its latest peak, Bitcoin is showing increased selling pressure. Let’s analyze together the future prospects of the price of BTC.
Bitcoin (BTC) price situation.
After rejecting $72,000, Bitcoin experienced selling pressure that took its price below the first support mentioned in the paper Analysis of June 11th, approximately $67,000 – $66,000. It therefore appears that the short period of fluctuation at this price level is over. Now, a selling structure is evident in the short term and paves the way for the continuation of the downside move towards $60,000. However, before reaching this last price level, there is a zone of value that could act as support, around $63,000.
At the time of writing this text, the Bitcoin price it trades around $65,600. We can see that the cryptocurrency has recently generated buying interest of around $65,000, making it an area of interest to keep an eye on. It is also worth noting that this price zone is at the same level as the 50-day moving average. It would therefore be reassuring to stay above this price level so as not to call into question the medium-long term structure of BTC. As for Bitcoin’s price dynamics, it appears to continue to weaken, as evidenced by its price and oscillators. Therefore, this does not support the buyers’ camp.
The current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elie FT, a passionate investor and trader in the cryptocurrency market. Now he is a coach at Family businessa community of thousands of proprietary traders active since 2017. There you will find lives, educational content and mutual support on the financial markets in a professional and friendly atmosphere.
Focus on Derivatives (BTCUSDT)
The open interest of Bitcoin perpetual contracts appears to follow the price of its underlying asset. However, it is particularly recovering. This demonstrates sustained speculative interest even if the price of Bitcoin is revised downwards. Combined with declining financing rates, one might imagine this recovery is due to growing seller interest. However, being still positive, it shows still dominant buying power. As for liquidations, we can observe that buyers have recently suffered forced liquidations right at the 65,000 mark. This demonstrates a capitulation of the buying force. Nonetheless, we can welcome the market reaction which shows the continued absorption of buyers.
The heat map of liquidations over the past few months indicates that BTC/USDT has recently come into contact with the liquidation zone around $65,000. Buying interest seems to be taking shape even if it hasn’t really manifested itself. Now, the most significant liquidation zone is located above its current price, namely around $72,200. Below the current price, we can also see a liquidity cluster near $60,000. If the market approaches this level, we could see massive order activation, potentially increasing the cryptocurrency’s volatility. These areas therefore represent important points of interest for investors.
Bitcoin (BTC) price hypothesis.
- As long as Bitcoin manages to remain above $65,000, we can anticipate the reintroduction of $67,000 and then reach $72,000. The next resistance to consider, if the upward movement continues, would be Bitcoin’s ATH below $74,000. Higher we can highlight the first level of Fibonacci extensions identified at $78,300. At present this would represent an increase of 19%.
- If Bitcoin fails to stay above $65,000, we may consider buying the interest support at $63,000. The next level to consider, if the downside movement continues, would be around $60,000. At this stage, this would represent a decline of close to -9%.
Conclusion
Bitcoin has recently faced selling pressure, leading to a break of key support and signaling a possible continuation of the short-term downward move. However, a support zone has emerged, offering a glimmer of hope to buyers. The current dynamic remains weak and, without remaining above $60,000, the medium and long-term structure could be called into question. Therefore, it will be crucial to closely observe the price reaction at several key levels to confirm or invalidate current assumptions. It is also important to remain vigilant against potential “false exits” and market “squeezes” in every scenario. Finally, let us remember that these analyzes are based exclusively on technical criteria and that cryptocurrency prices can also evolve rapidly based on other more fundamental factors.
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