News
Bitcoin Market Cools Down, Big Move Expected
Bitcoin Market Is Stabilizing
According to a recent relationship According to Glassnode, Bitcoin markets have cooled down after several months of intense distribution pressure. This comes after a significant period of distribution at the all-time high (ATH). Despite the lighter selling activity, capital inflows remain relatively modest. However, the compression of volatility could suggest a larger move on the horizon.
The supply side slows down
Strong Bitcoin markets naturally attract sell-side pressure as higher prices motivate long-term holders to offload some of their holdings. However, the supply held by the 3-year+ cohort continues to increase, suggesting that this cohort typically waits for higher prices before parting with their coins. As of this writing, more than half of the Bitcoin coin supply has not been transacted onchain in the past 2 years or more.
Maximum weight tracking
The report also uses the URPD metric to assess the density of coins with a cost basis around the current spot price. With a significant ~15.9% of the coin supply held just below the current spot price, a sustained influx of demand could potentially catalyze a period of price discovery. Only 1.1% of the circulating supply remains above the current spot price.
Volatility Compression
With supply pressure easing and capital inflows, the market has turned to volatility tools to solidify expectations for the next move. Volatility continues to compress to levels typically seen after long consolidations and before large market moves.
Summary and conclusions
After a strong mature investor distribution period in the $73K ATH, sell-side pressure has eased significantly. This has led to a reduction in headwinds and overhead resistance, with even modest demand capable of spurring positive price action. In parallel, volatility continues to compress on longer time frames, while a dense supply cluster has formed below the current spot price, potentially providing a solid base to build on.
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