Ethereum
Ethereum ETF to Attract Only 15% of US Bitcoin Spot ETF Flows: 10X Research
Ethereum price saw a modest 1% rise today, riding on optimism surrounding the impending approval of the US Spot Ethereum ETF. Notably, anticipation is soaring as market insiders expect that the Ether ETF could begin trading as early as next week, with July 2 highlighted as the key date.
However, recent information from 10X Research suggests that the Ethereum ETF may only attract a tiny fraction of the investments seen in spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States.
Ethereum ETF Expected to See Minimal Inflow Compared to BTC ETF
Markus Thielen, CEO of 10X Research, provided an in-depth analysis of the potential impact on the American Spot Ethereum ETFIn a social media post, Thielen highlighted the impending approval and expected market behavior.
According to Thielen, the Ethereum ETF could launch any day, possibly by July 2, following a pattern seen with Bitcoin ETFs. Thielen pointed out that VanEck, one of the key players in this space, recently filed a Form 8-A, a step taken just days before the launch of its Bitcoin ETF. VanEck’s Bitcoin ETF quickly accumulated $600 million in Assets under management (AUM).
However, for the Ethereum ETF, Thielen estimates it will only attract 15-20% of the inflow seen by Bitcoin ETFs, which is around $2.8 billion. Furthermore, Markus Thielen also emphasized that Van Eck filed its Form 8-A for Bitcoin ETF exactly seven days before the ETF launches in the U.S. Given that, it has increased its bets on the potential timing of the trading launch, which is July 2.
Regarding Ethereum ETF inflow expectations, Thielen said the “general expectations” are that the US Spot Ethereum ETF will only grab 15-20% of the investment that US Bitcoin ETFs
have seen, which translates to about $2.8 billion. Notably, this amount was roughly similar to the growth in open interest on Ethereum perpetual futures since May 20.
Given this, Thielen said the market may already be positioning itself for the launch of the US Spot Ethereum ETF.
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Role of the SEC and Market Readiness
Gary Gensler, Chairman of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), indicated that the approval process for the Spot Ethereum ETF is progressing smoothly. Although Gensler’s remarks were non-committal, they fueled optimism that the SEC could soon give the green light to these ETFs.
It’s worth noting that the timeline has been the subject of speculation, particularly after the SEC approved 19b-4 filings from several financial giants, including VanEck, BlackRock, Fidelity and Grayscale.
Despite these approvals, actual trading has yet to begin. Issuers are still required to amend their S-1 registration statements and obtain final approval from the SEC. Notably, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas adjusted the potential approval date of the Ethereum Spot ETF until July 2, reflecting ongoing regulatory processes.
At the time of writing, Ethereum Price ETH price increased by 1.11% and traded at $3,387.68. However, its trading volume dropped by 44% to $12.06 billion compared to yesterday, while its price reached a high of $3,424.58. Furthermore, Ethereum futures open interest increased by 0.90% to $15.08 billion, while ETH options open interest jumped by 1.63% to $6.3 billion.
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