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Where bettors see the price of Bitcoin after the halving – DL News
- The odds of Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high in April have plummeted by 66% on betting site Polymarket.
- Bettors have become more cautious.
- Several macroeconomic factors have soured the bullish mood among traders.
The odds of new all-time highs for Bitcoin in April are decreasing rapidly.
Bettors at blockchain-based betting site Polymarket now estimate the odds of Bitcoin surpassing $73,700 by the end of the month at just 14%.
This is down more than 66%. April 8 when bettors were riding the optimism stemming from demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and the impending halving.
A changing mood has taken hold in cryptocurrency and other markets.
Investor sentiment changed last week, said Caroline Bowler, CEO of cryptocurrency exchange BTC Markets DL News. He stressed that the US dollar’s gains reflect this caution. The dollar tends to be a haven during times of risk aversion.
Importance of the halving
The halving is a preordained event that will reduce miners’ rewards for maintaining the Bitcoin blockchain in half.
For most miners, this means their revenues will decline while operating costs will remain the same, turning some into main acquisition targets by the great players.
One version suggested that the halving will send Bitcoin to a new record high, an argument supported by historical data and skyrocketing demand for the cryptocurrency following the launch of 10 spot Bitcoin ETFs in January.
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However, bettors and other market watchers are starting to push back on this narrative.
Although the significance of the Bitcoin halving is exaggerated by some market observers, recent Bitcoin rallies “are much more than a fad,” said Greg Beard, CEO of Stronghold Digital Mining. DL News. “Bitcoin is maturing with institutional adoption.”
Beard suggested that the price of Bitcoin will increase substantially over the next two years.
Weighting down Bitcoin
Concerns about the Federal Reserve’s possible decision to lower interest rates until the end of the year, as well as the conflict between Iran and Israelweigh heavily on risky assets like Bitcoin.
Bitcoin fell to a seven-week low following Iran’s decision to attack Israel over the weekend, which saw the asset fall to $62,700 from $67,200 shortly after the Iranian air assault over the weekend.
A separate Polymarket bet suggests that there is a 68% chance that Bitcoin will trade above $60,000 by the end of the month.
To be sure, sentiment for Bitcoin in the coming months could change rapidly if inflation falls faster than expected, prompting the Fed to start cutting rates sooner.
Drivers of the cryptocurrency market
- Bitcoin rose about 0.6% to $61,649 today.
- Today, Ethereum gained 0.8% to $3,007.
What we are reading
Sebastian Sinclair is a markets correspondent for DL News. Do you have advice? Contact Seb at sebastian@dlnews.com.