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Will the Bitcoin halving take place today?
It’s not exactly a solar eclipse but, in terms of the cryptocurrency world, it’s rare and miraculous in its own right. I’m talking about the upcoming Bitcoin halving, which is designed to happen every four years or so, and this time will result in each new block of the blockchain providing 3,125 new Bitcoins instead of 6.25. Much has been written about the effects this will have on the price of Bitcoin (Niamh Rowe has a good summary Here), so I wanted to write instead about why no one can say for sure when this great event will happen.
Previous news speculated that the Bitcoin halving would take place on Saturday 4/20, which would provide the opportunity for plenty of “all-time high” jokes. But more recently, reports have stated that the event will occur on Friday or Saturday. The precise reason for the uncertainty is well known to Bitcoin enthusiasts, but probably not to most of those who follow cryptocurrencies more casually.
The answer lies in the fact that new blocks are not added to the Bitcoin blockchain at precise intervals. While it is common to say that new blocks are added every 10 minutes, this is only a rough estimate, as adding blocks requires solving a math problem based on trial and error, and the time it takes to do so is unpredictable. To see for yourself, check out a Bitcoin exploration site like This.
The site currently shows a countdown to the halving. As I write this, the clock shows the most recent block to be added as 839,940, which is 60 blocks away from the halving, which will occur at block 840,000. You can also see the time new blocks are added and the intervals. As recent history shows, some blocks took up to 25 minutes to arrive while other times the next block was added in less than two minutes. (This variation is normal, and as people who are very familiar with Bitcoin know, the software design includes a feature that makes the random math problem harder or easier to ensure the pace of new blocks stays close to an average 10 minutes.)
The result is that the Bitcoin halving will definitely happen later today or tomorrow. All of this is probably not the kind of thing you should try to share at a dinner party, but I mention it as a reminder of the ingenuity and elegance of Satoshi Nakamoto’s creation. Bitcoin is now 15 years old and, as its fourth halving approaches, it continues to run like clockwork. Happy halving to those who celebrate and happy 4/20 to those who celebrate other things. Good weekend.
Jeff John Roberts
jeff.roberts@fortune.com
@jeffjohnroberts
DECENTRALIZED NEWS
A jury convicted the Mango markets trader who robbed the DeFi platform of $110 million through fraud and market manipulation, rejecting its “code is law” defense. (Axios)
Bitcoin miners they are stockpiling tens of thousands of Bitcoins ahead of the halving in the hope that prices will rise. (Financial Times)
Greyscale has seen $16 billion in outflows since the SEC approved its ETF in January, partly as a result of its 1.5% fee, but some predict tax rules will lead most remaining clients to stay . (Wall Street Journal)
Singapore Triple-A crypto payment platform will be added PayPal’s PYUSD to its offering for customers, alongside Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether and USDC. (Bloomberg)
Kraken is acquiring the brokerage firm’s crypto arm TradeStation, including licensing, as it seeks to expand its presence in the United States. (CoinDesk)
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